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AIDS and increased mortality

rad.com.net. rec at iupui.net.
Thu Aug 31 13:50:04 EST 1995

"Doc Who?

>Did you see the article in the daily summary on decreased
>life expectancy?

Yes. I did. ("Pause in life-expectancy gains apparently 
tied to impact of aids." AIDS daily summary Aug. 30, 1995)

>Can you tell me when the market first recognized this trend, 
>and what is their analysis?

Perhaps the earliest analysis came from C. Proulx,- Scotia McLeod
Inc. Nov. 25, 1994:

"....although 3Q94 results show strong healthy growth, we want 
to see mortality data before concluding that ******'s natural
growth rate is again in the 20% - 25% range and therefore 
justifies the premium multiple.  Lack of mortality data make
the analysis of 3Q94 difficult at this point.  The 1Q94 results
showed an EPS increase of 21.6%.  However, we believe it inflated
******'s natural growth rate as mortality was up 4.3% in the US
well above the long term trend.  We estimate the contribution 
from higher mortality than normal in 1Q94 at $0.02 per share."
>Also can you tell me when the experts are predicting that this 
pandemic will reach it's peak, and then proceed to burn out?

Now that is a bit out of my reach.  I will cross post your 
question and let the experts speak for themselves.  Monitor 
Virology net.  



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