"John Knight" <johnknight at usa.com> wrote in message news:<_2W%8.20049$Fq6.2409696 at news2.west.cox.net>...
> "mat" <mats_trash at hotmail.com> wrote in message > > So let's make it REAL
> simple. Let's define a simple statement of the
> > > problem.
> > >
> > > If you have 100,000 students *randomly guessing* at one multiple choice
> > > question which has four possible answers (A., B., C., and D.), one of
> which
> > > must be selected, then there is only ONE possible outcome:
> > >
> > > A. gets selected 25,000 times.
> > >
> > > B. gets selected 25,000 times.
> > >
> > > C. gets selected 25,000 times.
> > >
> > > D. gets selected 25,000 times.
> > >
> >
> > Your contradicting yourself and you don't even realise it. Given that
> > the students are guessing 'randomly' then it is by no means certain
> > that anything of the sort you describe is going to happen (thats what
> > random means). What probability tells you is what is more or less
> > likely to happen and what would happen as sample size and repetition
> > tends toward infinity
> >
>> Mat, this is getting to be a waste of time. You're actually going
> BACKWARDS, adding to the negative knowledge, and confusing more people than
> just yourself.
>> If you don't believe the above is precisely what will happen (plus or minus
> 0.75%), then exactly what do you *think* will happen. Be specific, and tell
> us exactly why you *think* that.
>> This is fundamental to getting the rest correct, so please don't go blasting
> off into territory that is clearly going to confuse the issue, and focus
> only on the above.
>> Tell us why the above won't be the outcome, and tell us what you *think* it
> will be instead.
>> John Knight
Don't you get it yet - I'm not saying the above won't be the outcome
but the whole basis of probability is that it tells you the relative
likelyhood of events occuring, not what IS going to happen, (unless
the probability is 1, in which case the event is certain) . You've
confused yourself by working out that answering one question correct
is certain thus the distribution of answers must be as above. ITS
WRONG. plain as that. What I think will occur is that if everyone
randomly guesses then the result may well be something like an even
distribution across each answer but it may well be that many more
people choose a certain answer. In short, I don't know though I can
make an estimate given the probabilties of different outcomes.
Let me ask you this - what is the probability of getting one answer
correct having answered five questions? is it 1.25 (as it would be by
your logic)? Whats your answer?
Why didn't you partake in the little test I constructed? The answers
are already on the post (not explicitly), so I can't cheat.
