"John Knight" <johnknight at usa.com> wrote in message
news:_2W%8.20049$Fq6.2409696 at news2.west.cox.net...
>>> "mat" <mats_trash at hotmail.com> wrote in message > > So let's make it REAL
> simple. Let's define a simple statement of the
> > > problem.
> > >
> > > If you have 100,000 students *randomly guessing* at one multiple
choice
> > > question which has four possible answers (A., B., C., and D.), one of
> which
> > > must be selected, then there is only ONE possible outcome:
> > >
> > > A. gets selected 25,000 times.
> > >
> > > B. gets selected 25,000 times.
> > >
> > > C. gets selected 25,000 times.
> > >
> > > D. gets selected 25,000 times.
> > >
> >
> > Your contradicting yourself and you don't even realise it. Given that
> > the students are guessing 'randomly' then it is by no means certain
> > that anything of the sort you describe is going to happen (thats what
> > random means). What probability tells you is what is more or less
> > likely to happen and what would happen as sample size and repetition
> > tends toward infinity
> >
>> Mat, this is getting to be a waste of time. You're actually going
> BACKWARDS, adding to the negative knowledge, and confusing more people
than
> just yourself.
>> If you don't believe the above is precisely what will happen (plus or
minus
> 0.75%), then exactly what do you *think* will happen. Be specific, and
tell
> us exactly why you *think* that.
>> This is fundamental to getting the rest correct, so please don't go
blasting
> off into territory that is clearly going to confuse the issue, and focus
> only on the above.
>> Tell us why the above won't be the outcome, and tell us what you *think*
it
> will be instead.
I have already explained why the above isn't true. Additionally, I have
found the ACTUAL answer.
See another post where I calculate the probability that 1 person will guess
uniformly for the four questions.
