"mat" <mats_trash at hotmail.com> wrote in message > > So let's make it REAL
simple. Let's define a simple statement of the
> > problem.
> >
> > If you have 100,000 students *randomly guessing* at one multiple choice
> > question which has four possible answers (A., B., C., and D.), one of
which
> > must be selected, then there is only ONE possible outcome:
> >
> > A. gets selected 25,000 times.
> >
> > B. gets selected 25,000 times.
> >
> > C. gets selected 25,000 times.
> >
> > D. gets selected 25,000 times.
> >
>> Your contradicting yourself and you don't even realise it. Given that
> the students are guessing 'randomly' then it is by no means certain
> that anything of the sort you describe is going to happen (thats what
> random means). What probability tells you is what is more or less
> likely to happen and what would happen as sample size and repetition
> tends toward infinity
>
Mat, this is getting to be a waste of time. You're actually going
BACKWARDS, adding to the negative knowledge, and confusing more people than
just yourself.
If you don't believe the above is precisely what will happen (plus or minus
0.75%), then exactly what do you *think* will happen. Be specific, and tell
us exactly why you *think* that.
This is fundamental to getting the rest correct, so please don't go blasting
off into territory that is clearly going to confuse the issue, and focus
only on the above.
Tell us why the above won't be the outcome, and tell us what you *think* it
will be instead.
John Knight
