John Knight wrote:
>> "Bob LeChevalier" <lojbab at lojban.org> wrote in message
> news:f3bcju8u4kmc3k3engod0496aqc835q0ku at 4ax.com...> > "John Knight" <johnknight at usa.com> wrote:
> > >> > The ONLY time you could apply that argument is when a large
> percentage of
> > >> > them answered correctly, but even then, if 0% failed to respond at
> all, then
> > >> > some of them HAD to guess.
> > >>
> > >> Well, that's a reasonable assumption, but so what? Some people probably
> > >> guess on every multiple choice question on ever test.
> > >
> > >You and I agree. LeChevalier is an idiot. He said, and I quote: "we
> don't
> > >know that people guess randomly when faced with a test question they do
> not
> > >understand. Indeed, we know that they do not".
> > >
> > >This is not the stupidest thing he's ever said. And he'll deny even said
> it
> > >as time goes by. But only a real moron "thinks" like this.
> >
> > I see no reason to deny I said it. I believe it is true. People are
> > incapable of behaving truly randomly. More likely, if someone were to
> have
> > no idea what the answers were, but wanted to guess, they would mark the
> > answers NON-randomly, like marking "A" for all of them or repeating a
> > pattern.
> >
>> I don't blame you for trying to retreat from your stupid remark, so let me
> repeat it for you:
>> "This makes the assumption that those who know nothing guess randomly. IN
> reality, we don't know that people guess randomly when faced with a test
> question they do not understand. Indeed, we know that they do not."
>> Note that you said "we KNOW that they do not" guess randomly.
>> "WE" "know" no such thing. "WE" know that when students are confronted with
> a question which they don't have even a clue about, and they STILL answer
> that question, that the only thing they could possibly do is "guess
> randomly", but I agree that *YOU* will probably never "know" that.
Wow, are you dumb. It's possible to know *something* about a problem,
and eliminate a wrong answer or two.
BTW, what is the answer to H04?
>> > >You don't seem to understand the point either. If *all* students just
> > >*guessed* on a four part multiple choice question, and didn't have a clue
> > >about what the answer was, they would have gotten 25% of them correct
> just
> > >by chance.
> >
> > But the converse is NOT true, that "if just 25% of them got the question
> > correct, then all students just guessed".
> >
>> What kind of a freak are you? It IS true. It's a basic FACT of probability
> and
> statistics that if you have a four choice answer, and exactly 25% of
> students select the correct answer, that this could be nothing BUT a random
> selection.
You dumb ass! If I turn a hose on my car, I know it will get wet, that
doesn't mean that if my car is wet, I know turned a hose on it!
>> This is particularly true when all four of the answers are as close to 25%
> as they were.
>> If 26% selected the correct answer, then 74% got the WRONG answer, and the
> obvious scenario when there is such a low correct response rate is that
> students GUESSED. This is too close to the standard error to be
> significant, though.
>> If 30% got it right, then 70% got it wrong, and it's very rare that 70% of
> students would have been taught the wrong thing. Certainly it happens, but
> if the answers are spread evenly across the other options, then it's
> inevitable that many of them just RANDOMLY guessed.
Says the person who claimed a negative number of people got the answer
right without guessing.
>> > >The only way for them to get less than 25% correct would be to know
> > >something about the problem and select the wrong answer on purpose, or to
> > >have the wrong information in the first place.
> >
> > A slight dawn of understanding. Of course when they "select the wrong
> answer
> > on purpose", they don't think it is the wrong answer.
> >
>> No, there was no dawn here. There would have been a dawn if you'd realized
> that American girls literally cannot score lower than if they'd just guessed
> on a THIRD of the problems unless they knew enough about the subject to
> subconsciously select the wrong answer (unless they were taught wrong in the
> first place, which is silly, because they were taught in the same classroom
> as boys who didn't do this). http://christianparty.net/timssphysics.htm>> On one or two questions we could chalk it up to an unknown anomaly. On a
> THIRD of the questions, you have a condition that can't just be swept under
> the carpet.
What is the answer to H0?, Give an explanation.
>> > >If 30% of them got it correct, this doesn't mean that 30% of them knew
> the
> > >answer.
> >
> > It might or it might not.
> >
> > If they didn't have the wrong information, or didn't make an error,
> > >then of the 30% who got it correct, 23% would have gotten it correct
> because
> > >they guessed, and only 7% would have gotten it correct because they
> > >understood the problem [ x = total guesses, 0.25x = correct guesses 0.75x
> =
> > >wrong guesses = 70%, x = .93, 0.25x = .23 = correct guesses, correct
> total
> > >answers of 30% - 23% correct guesses = 7% (those who knew the problem)].
> >
> > You cannot determine the percentage who guessed. You persist in assuming
> > that everyone who got the answer wrong guessed randomly, and there is no
> > evidence of this.
> >
>> Lookit, if they scored *exactly* the same as if they'd just guessed, then
> ALL you have is proof that this is what they did.
No, dumb ass, you do not.
If they scored
> significantly higher than the 3% standard error added onto the 25% they'd
> get just for guessing [read: significantly higher than 28%], only then do
> you have evidence that more than guessing was involved. If they scored 50%,
> and the other 50% answered ONE of the wrong questions, then you may have
> evidence that they didn't guess, but actually misunderstood the problem, or
> were not taught properly. But if that 50% is spread evenly over the other
> three answers, then you have statistical evidence that 50% of them GUESSED.
>> > >> This would only make sense if everyone in the group knew they didn't
> > >> know, and just started guessing.
> > >
> > >Which was the case for many of the questions that American girls
> answered.
> > >You can't score that low, consistently, if you know something about the
> > >subject
> >
> > They did NOT score "that low, consistently"
> >
>> Count the questions. Tell me what percentage of them scored lower than if
> they'd just guessed http://christianparty.net/timssphysics.htm
What is the answer to H04?
J
