John Knight wrote:
>> "Jet" <thatjetnospam at yahoo.com> wrote in message
> news:3D353D8F.8A736C4B at yahoo.com...> >
> >
> > Bob LeChevalier wrote:
> > >
> > > "John Knight" <johnknight at usa.com> wrote:
> > > >Believe me, Parse, you don't need algebra or calculus to calculate the
> > > >statistical average for American girls in TIMSS math. Even adjusting
> for
> > > >guesses doesn't require anything but some very basic probability
> theory.
> > > >
> > > >It's as simple as this:
> > > >
> > > >If you're asked a question which has four multiple choice answers, and
> you
> > > >haven't got a clue what the answer is, what is the probability of
> getting a
> > > >correct answer? Since you have once chance in four of getting the
> right
> > > >answer, your probability is 0.25. If you guess on two questions, your
> > > >probability is .5, and three it's .75, and four, it's 1.0.
> > > >
> > > >In other words, over the long run, or over millions of test takers,
> guessing
> > > >on such a question will yield 25% correct answers, or conversely, every
> > > >fourth answer will be correct.
> > >
> > > This makes the assumption that those who know nothing guess randomly.
> IN
> > > reality, we don't know that people guess randomly when faced with a test
> > > question they do not understand. Indeed, we know that they do not.
> > >
>> Wrong. Dead wrong. You could make that argument about one question, but
> when the pattern is repeated over and over again, then you can detect a
> pattern: American girls scored lower on many questions than if they'd just
> guessed because they didn't have a clue about what the answer was.
Do you? Give us the answer, and the explanation, so we know you are not
guessing.
Many of
> these questions had zero misses [read: 0% failed to provide an answer at
> all], which means you're nuts to even hint that "Indeed, we know that they
> do not" "guess randomly".
>> The ONLY time you could apply that argument is when a large percentage of
> them answered correctly, but even then, if 0% failed to respond at all, then
> some of them HAD to guess.
Well, that's a reasonable assumption, but so what? Some people probably
guess on every multiple choice question on ever test.
>> > > But the assumption becomes totally meaningless if in fact they know
> > > SOMETHING. If 100% of them know something, but not enough to solve the
> > > problem, then it is quite plausible that 100% of them will get the
> answer
> > > wrong. Thus someone knowing Newtonian physics perfectly will get the
> wrong
> > > answer on a question that uses special relativity theory. A good test
> > > designer will know that the Newtonian approximation is a likely error,
> and
> > > will include that answer among the incorrect alternatives.
> >
> > Then the article makes the shockingly stupid conclusion that NONE of the
> > girls who got the answer right understood the problem!
> >
>> If guessing on a multiple choice question would yield 25% correct, but
> American girls only got 5% correct, then how would YOU calculate how many of
> them understood the problem?
Maybe 95% of the girls didn't understand the question, 5% did. Um, duh.
>> > >
> > > >No algebra. No calculus. A bit of probability theory, and you already
> know
> > > >that 25% of all students will get the correct answer if they only
> *guess* on
> > > >a four part multiple choice question.
> > >
> > > But you have no evidence that any kid "guessed" on any problem.
> > >
> > > >Now here's the hard part:
> > > >
> > > >Question H04 on TIMSS had four multiple choice answers, so you would
> think
> > > >that no country or age group or race or sex would answer less than 25%
> of
> > > >them correct, right?
This would only make sense if everyone in the group knew they didn't
know, and just started guessing.
> > >
> > > Wrong. I would think that if the question were difficult and well
> designed,
> > > that this would be quite possible.
> > >
> > > >How do you think that's possible?
> > > >
> > > >You can probably figure this out with no knowledge of algebra or
> calculus,
> > > >and you already know all the probability theory that might be needed,
> so
> > > >what is your explanation?
> > >
> > > I've given an explanation, and mine explains how on question D12, both
> boys
> > > and girls in the US scored less than 17% and South Africans scored only
> 6.4%
> > > correct.
> >
> > Isn't it odd that someone who is harping on math ability doesn't seem to
> > realize that 17 and 6 are both lower than 25? :)
> >
> > J
>> What's your point, J?
My point is that you illustrate the saying, "Figures don't lie, but
liars sure can figure."
You figure because American girls got a score of 22.something correct on
one test question on one test, that there is no such thing as "gender
equality".
Who exactly do you think made the point that getting
> 17% correct on a four part multiple guess problem is a lower score than if
> everyone just guessed?
You?
>> What part of that don't you understand (other than the typical and
> infinitely STUPID statement by lojbab that no students guessed)?
He never made that statement.
J
>> John Knight
