(Arthur T. Murray) scribet
> I take comfort from Vinge's persuasive argument of inevitability.
Vernor V poses a sensible question: if life is an inevitable outcome of
chemistry, then where is everyone? Five possibilities, which I have
extended:
0: We are wrong about everything and our hypotheses are meaningless.
1: We are wrong about the chemistry: it actually requires very fine tuning.
Life is rare.
2: Life is common, but unique civilisations are not. Thus 'do not
interfere' is the key rule. We are presently in a cosmic game park (or
visited by machinery built of the dark matter that makes up 30-50% of
the universal mass, but which we cannot yet detect. Or whatever.
3: It is dangerous out there. Keep silent or you attract attention.
As a subset, societies of a certain density and technical complexity
always destroy themselves.
4: Aware biological life has a very short time span of technical
civilisation before it finds a 'better way to be'. A few hundred
years, perhaps? Thus brief flickers of radio emissions, thus the
failure of SETI.
My bets are on (4), although (1) may be the case. We cannot yet know.
Vinge's singularity consists of the projection of exponential increases in
knowledge and capability to a point at which the realization of potential
takes one into a realm that we cannot now foresee. At least one element of
this is situation consists of finding non-biological, unlimited frameworks
in which to be aware, interacting and sensual beings. That this is to occur
"in a computer" gives quite the wrong contextual messages. One might - for
example - be able to create an unlimited number of unique sub-spaces to
our universe, that have the properties allowing them individually (a) to
carry out the operations which supported unlimited awareness and (b) to
abut with and interact with conventional space when and how this was
appropriate. Not exactly a mind in a box, more in a portable, private
universe with its own time-like analogues and its own rule set designed to
support mentation and little else. General Motor's chief product for 2050,
perhaps. ,
_______________________________
Oliver Sparrow
