Nigel Kenward <mbxnjk at vax.nott.ac.uk> wrote:
>HI, Here'a a point for discussion:
>As you probably know, a new "strain" of CJD has recently been dentified in the UK
>(distinguished by: age of of patients, pathology, speed of disease and symptoms it presents
>with) and naturally this has been linked with the outbreaks of B.S.E. over the last 10 years
>or so.
>Last WEEK 3 new cases were discovered, including 2 in the same town ! This brings the total so
>far this year to substantially more than would be expected with the more normal CJD SO;
>Is this the tip of the iceberg ? Is this the start of the traditional "bell-shaped curve" seen
>with infectious diseases ? Is it just a statistical anomaly ? Are the "doom-mongers" like
>Prof. Lacey and Dr Dealer right in saying there could be thousands of cases in the next 10
>years ?
>Obviously the answer to these is "nobody knows, but what do you think ?
As far as I know there is still no proven causal relationship between
CJD and BSE. Of course, statistically, there seems to be a
relationship and, as far as Public Health is concerned, this is more
than enough to take drastic measures. It would be, indeed, interesting
to know if the newly discovered cases of CJD are only sporadic or if
they are, as Nigel points out, the "tip of the iceberg". Anyways, I
think that there are two main problems here: a biological problem and
a social problem. Both require an urgent solution that, in my opinion,
does not have to be the indiscriminate destruction of millions of
bovines.
We should not forget that when all the physicians are suddenly alerted
to a particular disease (CJD for instance), the prevalence of this
disease could rise enormously because more of the preexisting cases
are diagnosed. The sudden rise in the incidence of the disease may be
explained by this well-known phenomenon. But it also may not...
I guess nobody wants to take a chance, so it would be wise to invest
in the study of both CJD ans BSE. In my opinion, we must concentrate
our efforts on 2 aspects:
1) The early diagnosis of the disease, both in bovines and humans, so
we could destroy the infected bovines and provide support measures for
the infected humans..
2) The discovery of the eventual routes of transmission of the
diseases to bovines and to humans, so we could prevent its spreading.
Unfortunatelly, we know very little about prions, so I guess it will
take many years before we find solutions for the vaccination and/or
cure of the disease (supposing they could exist). This should be a
long term goal.
Well... I hope this discussion will be continued by other people!
ooooooooooooo
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8888888888888888888888888888 Sergio Miguel Cardoso
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o88 8888888888888888888888888 Faculty of Medicine
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(e-mail:np07la at mail.telepac.pt)
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