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Modeling African AIDS

Robert Elbourn roe1 at elec.qmw.ac.uk
Mon May 22 08:57:45 EST 2000

what about the possibility of a variable "success" rate of infection
based on how long the virus has been resident in the body, for example,
a persons immune system actively fighting the virus will show a low
amount of the virus in the blood and therefore exhibit less infectivity,
also a person succumbing to the virus with its numbers rocketting in the
blood may well have a very high infectivity with a significant chance of
i am not sure the assumption of infection as a constant can't be
bettered by a slightly more dynamic program which will reflect the
states of people with the disease. also what about the behavioural
aspects of those people who know/do not know that they have the disease.
Its just a thought anyway...

Robert Elbourn

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