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AIDS Origin: Statistics & Smoking Guns

"Barr, David RTD David.Barr at riotinto.com.au
Thu Jan 20 00:16:54 EST 2000

Registering on this news group in the last couple of weeks has been an act
of faith.  So far, that faith has not been justified.

As a lay person in this area can I please ask for some professional
judgements?  Once it's agreed why there is a disagreement out there, perhaps
we can let the matter rest, and move on?  (If after that anyone wishes to
post material for our information, perhaps we could just receive it in that

Tom Keske made a detailed statement on the statistical evidence linking the
incidence of early cases of AIDS in San Francisco to a hepatitis vaccine
trial.  This possibility has been vehemently denied.  Would someone please
enlighten me as to the scientific case against?  

I am aware of the Canadian air steward as a putative "patient zero" in
continental N America, ergo HIV infection was not started in San Francisco.
The statement regarding the killed hep inoculations significantly reduced in
my mind the possibility of at least accidental contamination eg via the use
of Simian contaminated cultures somewhere during production and a zoonosis
via transfer (and mutation) of SIV.  Or something similar

Fine.  Is that correct?  What is the current state of thinking re SIV to HIV
conversion?  Are the general points above still the received wisdom?

In that context, why then the apparent correlation in Tom Keske's figures?
"Lies, damn lies and statistics"?  Could someone give me plausible
suggestions for where the bias lies in the figures and give me an
epidemiologically sound reason why so many of that trial contracted HIV?
Keep it simple,

David B.   

> -----Original Message-----
> From:	jorge1907 at aol.comcom [SMTP:jorge1907 at aol.comcom]
> Sent:	Thursday, January 20, 2000 3:14 PM
> To:	microbio at hgmp.mrc.ac.uk
> Subject:	Re: AIDS Origin: Statistics & Smoking Guns
> Tom - that has as much technical accuracy and defense as the rest of your
> posts.
> Really, Tom this is a microbiology group not a pudgeon hole for every
> conspiracy theory idiots like you can imagine. 
> Please let your AIDS take you away so that you might die.
> There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,
> Than are dreamt of in your philosophy

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