Dear Colleagues,
I would like to share with you the abstract of our recent article published
by the Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2001, 213(4): 527-545.
Any comments and suggestions are welcome!
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THE RELIABILITY THEORY OF AGING AND LONGEVITY
Reliability theory is a general theory about systems failure. It allows
researchers to predict the age-related failure kinetics for a system of
given architecture (reliability structure) and given reliability of its
components.
Reliability theory predicts that even those systems that are entirely
composed of non-aging elements (with a constant failure rate) will
nevertheless deteriorate (fail more often) with age, if these systems
are REDUNDANT in irreplaceable elements. Aging, therefore, is a direct
consequence of systems redundancy.
Reliability theory also predicts the late-life mortality deceleration with
subsequent leveling-off, as well as the late-life mortality plateaus, as an
inevitable consequence of REDUNDANCY EXHAUSTION at extreme old ages.
The theory explains why mortality rates increase exponentially with age
(the Gompertz law) in many species, by taking into account
the INITIAL FLAWS (DEFECTS) in newly formed systems. It also explains
why organisms "prefer" to die according to the Gompertz law, while
technical devices usually fail according to the Weibull (power)
law. Theoretical conditions are specified when organisms die according to
the Weibull law: organisms should be relatively free of initial flaws and
defects.
The theory makes it possible to find a general failure law applicable to
all adult and extreme old ages, where the Gompertz and the Weibull laws are
just special cases of this more general failure law.
The theory explains why relative differences in mortality rates of compared
populations (within a given species) vanish with age, and mortality
convergence is observed due to the exhaustion of initial differences in
redundancy levels.
Overall, reliability theory has an amazing predictive and explanatory power
with a few, very general and realistic assumptions. Therefore, reliability
theory seems to be a promising approach for developing a comprehensive
theory of aging and longevity integrating mathematical methods with
specific biological knowledge.
Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova
Center on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago, 1155 East 60th Street,
Chicago, IL, 60637, U.S.A.
THE RELIABILITY THEORY OF AGING AND LONGEVITY.
Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2001, 213(4): 527-545.
Full text of this article is available at:
http://www.idealibrary.com/links/doi/10.1006/jtbi.2001.2430/pdf
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______________________________________
Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov, Center on Aging
NORC/University of Chicago
1155 East 60th Street
Chicago, IL 60637-2745
USA
Fax: (773) 256-6313, Phone: (773) 256-6359
FOR MORE INFO PLEASE VISIT OUR SCIENTIFIC WEBSITE :
http://www.src.uchicago.edu/~gavr1/
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